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| Sacramento High-speed Rail Station - conceptual illustrations 2008 |
Yesterday Governor Gavin Nuwsom pulled the plug on California’s
High-Speed Rail but the Central Valley segment from Bakersfield to Merced (110
miles) would be completed. Thus far, California has spent $5.4 billion on what
is considered the easy stretch of the CA train. In 2008 we were also told that private
money would come beating down the door once the project got underway, but you
can imagine that the current expectation of private investment in the train is
now nothing more than a pipe dream.
We can mark this failed project as Never Built, Merced to
Bakersfield is more of a monument to mismanagement and foolish ideas.A little history, the California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) in 1996 was established to begin formal planning in preparation for a ballot measure in 1998 or 2000. In 2008 voters approved a $10 billion bond to begin funding the project with construction beginning in 2016. Since 2008 the project has been plagued by delays and cost overruns. The cost to build phase one from San Francisco to Los Angeles has exploded from what we were told it cost in 2008 of about $39 billion, in 2012 it went up to $68 billion and to the most current projection is estimated at $100 billion.
The biggest scam in this project was how it was marketed and
sold to the voters with no realistic funding source for the remainder of the
project beyond Bakersfield to Merced. It was also a bait and switch teasing
both Sacramento and San Diego with future extensions just to obtain votes. What
we have now is billions of dollars wasted that could have been used
productively elsewhere.
I enjoy following your page, and seeing important projects in Sacramento, however, I disagree with your point of view in this post. High Speed Rail will be built.
ReplyDeleteThe Governor has not claimed the project will never be built. A more appropriate headline might be High Speed Rail and ALL other mega projects are extremely challenging to build in America, even in California, mostly due to our decentralized governance system.
California's annual GDP is about $2.5 to $3 trillion
California's 2019-2020 annual budget is proposed to be $209.1 billion
California taxpayers sent about $369 billion to the IRS as federal taxes in 2017
High Speed Rail investments...less than 1% of State spending in any given year at the highest spending years of high speed rail.
High Speed Rail is a small investment in the future and is not required to be a one time $100 billion investment. In fact, spending just a few billion a year for the next 20 years would pay off exponentially in economic development activity and transportation/mobility benefits.
Many Americans, particularly the aging population enjoyed infrastructure investments mostly in roads and highways for the last 40-70 years, that have been saddled onto future generations. But now that the Baby-boomers are aging out, many don't want to help pay for future investments in infrastructure because they won't benefit from it in their lifetimes. I find tremendous value in investing in the future, especially when it comes to infrastructure. $1B to $2B a year is a small drop in the big bucket of the California economy, not to mention the national economy. Especially when you consider that the billions of high speed rail dollars are spread over decades, not all at once.
Caltrans Budget is typically $15-$20B per year. The U.S.A. government spent more than $600 billion on military last year...My point is, spending a few billion dollars a year on rail as a meaningful mode of transportation for the future is wise. No one needs to spend $100 billion all at once, but I think $100 billion spread across 25 or 30 years isn't a lot to ask, especially if the federal government chips in on a 'green new deal' infrastructure package for clean transportation technology.
So many benefits are associated with rail investments! Mobility options. Long-term Economic Activity. Construction Jobs. Environmental benefits.
Your post seems short sighted, and I encourage you to reconsider your position.
I(me)clamed it will Never Be Built, I never said the Governor said that. Unless another scam is thought up to fund it, the only other way is a private investment. You have to think thou, right now the estimate is $100 billion 4 years after we were told it would be $39 billion when they broke ground. With costs rising every year, if the project were to continue as it is now the estimate 13 years from now will probably be $250 billion to $350 billion. And then if they add Sacramento and San Diego to the extensions it would be $450 billion or more. The original cost was a lie from the beginning, so trusting anything said by the current rail authority would be a mistake.
ReplyDeleteSo you are saying it is better to do nothing...on the rail side of infrastructure unless the private sector pays for it? That sounds awfully pessimistic. I think there are incremental investments in rail that can logically be made over time that will transform the rail market and the overall economy. I've experienced rail in other countries. It is transformational. It is exceptional when compared to other modes of travel. The government must be involved. The private sector is not able to deliver rail without the powers of eminent domain, and without huge financial backing. Even Brightline in Florida has needed some level of government support. I think your pessimism in the current laws and government has jaded your perspective on the actual opportunity that exists in California.
ReplyDeleteThe current rail authority has poisoned the well for future HSR in CA. Who can trust anything the current group of politicians promise us on this subject? Not me. I voted for it originally, but these ballooning costs are absurd and watching the estimated completion date go out further and further gets a not confidence vote from me. So far you have not sold me on why the current group in charge are worth investing more time and money into?
ReplyDeleteI wasn't advocating for the group in charge, but rather the inherent value in rail as a meaningful mode of transportation and driver of economic activity. I recognize there are many obstacles in the delivery of actual high speed rail system, but I think California has a good start compared to the rest of America, and I want to see the vision of rail as a competitive mode of transportation become a reality, starting in California. I guess I'm more interested in solving the problems, than throwing in the towel. I feel like the new Governor is trying to do that...and I hope his efforts pay off.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous sees value in a failed project that mislead CA voters to begin with and then also wants to continue building it in increments, which could mean it could possibly never be finished. I have to agree Zwahlen, who can believe these HSR people any more? If you have seen the news lately, Governor Newsom has changed his story from canceling the project to downsizing, backtracking on what Newsom said to kill the project originally. It should go back to the voters, nobody voted to have HSR only in the central valley. Whos gonna ride this train? The valley already has Amtrack. End this sad dream.
ReplyDeleteI agree something needs to go back to the voters for rail:
ReplyDeleteI propose $2B per year for 10 years of rail investments totaling $20B (2020-2030):
1. Complete Merced to Bakersfield HSR @220mph by 2026
2. Improve Merced to Oakland rail corridor to 110mph for incrementally 'faster' service
3. Improve Merced to Sacramento rail corridor to 110mph for incrementally 'faster' service
4. Improve Merced to San Jose rail corridor via Altamont Pass to 110mph for incrementally 'faster' service
5. Extend Caltrain SF to SJ service to Gilroy and Salinas @ 110mph for incrementally 'faster' service
6. Execute 'SCORE' projects in LA for dedicated passenger rail corridor between Burbank and Anaheim @ 110mph for incrementally 'faster' service
7. Execute rail improvements between San Diego and LA to 110mph for incrementally'faster' service
8. Provide matching dollars to any available federal funds for tunnels to connect San Jose and LA